The drama begins with Blackrock's historic move to file for America’s first spot Bitcoin ETF.

Other old-money institutions are also stirring the pot as Soros Fund says crypto is ripe for a TradFi takeover.

They’re finally playing their hand, which seems to be taking Bitcoin out of yours. But it seems they've met their match.

TLDR 📃

• In a daring move, Blackrock files for America's first spot Bitcoin ETF, igniting potential institutional interest.
• Soros Fund CEO spotlights an opportunity for traditional finance to take over crypto.
• Blackrock and SEC's moves could spell a 'Chokepoint 2.0' aimed at unsettling crypto markets and buying up Bitcoin.
• However, retail holders are unmoved. 60% of all Bitcoin hasn't budged in a year; no one is selling.

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. Any capital-related decisions you make are your full responsibility.

BTC hodlers, say "not so fast" ✊

Institutional investors are coming for your Bitcoin, but it seems most Bitcoin holders are remaining diamond-handed as ever.

This week, more than 60% of all BTC has not moved in over a year! The supply available for these institutions to buy up is limited, despite all their efforts to cause us to part ways with our BTC.

Supply held stable for a while and will likely remain that way. A large percentage of dormant supply adds to the scarcity of BTC, now and increasingly in the future.

The graph below shows the supply of BTC, shaded in different colours. The cooler colours represent BTC that hasn’t moved; the cooler the colour, the longer BTC has been held dormant.

But how long will this hodling last against the relentless onslaught from TradFi players?

Bitcoin’s hashrate hits a new high 📉

Miners provide a clue.

Bitcoin mining is more competitive than it’s ever been. Bitcoin’s hashrate, the measure of all attempts to add the following block to the blockchain, has hit an all-time high this week - miners can feel the momentum building up.

Of course, mining is becoming more difficult to get into profitably, but existing companies have already developed strong advantages. We covered some promising mining companies in another article; check it out here if you’re interested.

Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF 💵

So, now to the institutional attempt at a crypto takeover.

The world’s biggest asset manager, Blackrock, made the bold move to file for a spot Bitcoin ETF. Bold because no spot crypto ETF has ever been approved by the SEC. And in case you haven’t noticed, the regulatory climate hasn’t felt very pro-crypto lately.

But was that all part of the plan?

The SEC and Blackrock have always been close; perhaps, too close! Blackrock’s filed for many ETFs in the US, and the SEC hardly ever denies them. Of the 576 ETFs Blackrock had filed to set up, only one has been rejected.

If the ETF is approved, it would mean significant demand for Bitcoin, especially on the institutional side. Many funds are barred from investing in crypto. If a spot Bitcoin ETF is established, it would make Bitcoin fair game for all the pension funds and investment groups in the US.

A Spot Bitcoin ETF would also mean more demand than we saw from futures ETFs. This is because Spot ETFs require exposure to the underlying asset, Bitcoin, in this case.

Soros Fund says crypto takeover is imminent 🧳

Speaking about TradFi's interest in crypto, Dawn Fitzpatrick, CEO of the Soros Fund, said crypto exchanges, Coinbase and Binance, are in trouble mainly because there was never an “adult in the room” present.

So, how do we get adults in the crypto room? He says there’s a “huge opportunity for incumbent financial firms to actually take the lead” because crypto is “here to stay”.

Is this dawn of Chokepoint 2.0? 🤌

It is interesting that titans of the traditional finance industry are finally ready to drop all pretence and take over the crypto industry.

It all begs the question, why now?

Has the SEC been playing to Blackrock’s tune, scaring people from crypto to make the opportunity more attractive?

If so, this could be the beginning of Chokepoint 2.0, a 4D chess game the government and bankers have been playing to get us to sell them our Bitcoin.

Pay attention to this point from Blackrock’s filing! Blackrock said that if a Bitcoin fork ever were to happen, they could choose whichever fork they want, and that’s not necessarily the most valuable fork.

This small print allows Blackrock to disagree with the rest of us and run with a new BTC fork. Think about how nasty it will be if a fork puts us, regular people, on one side and institutional players like Blackrock on the other.

Price analysis 📈

You might think that Bitcoin reaching support will ensure more upside from here. Well, that’s true… kind of.

There is one small obstacle keeping us from going higher, and that’s the little resistance channel you see on the chart. This channel has been the decisive point for Bitcoin in the last two months, constantly marking a local top after each test as resistance.

We want to see this channel broken before confirming any upside. However, the priority remains holding $25,150 as support - this prevents any downside at this time.

Targets? Bitcoin breaking above the channel will put it on track to $28,750, potentially even higher prices such as $30,000.

Cryptonary’s take 🧠

In the savage world of traditional finance, the alpha predators stalk their prey, weaken them, and pounce when the moment is just right.

TradFi apparently wants to play the same script on crypto, but the old hands on deck are far from rattled.

Despite the looming threats and the unsettling power plays, the crypto ecosystem remains resilient. We've weathered storms before and come out stronger; this time will be no different.

The game's far from over, friends. Buckle up; it's going to be a wild ride!

As always, thanks for reading. 🙏

Cryptonary, Out!