The game is changing from El Salvador's bonds skyrocketing due to its Bitcoin exposure to the US sharpening its surveillance tools for a crypto future. 

Bitcoin might even sway the race to the White House. Intrigued? You should be.

When countries move from military action to playing monetary chess, what does all this mean for you? 

Let’s unpack the unfolding unprecedented shift in the global economic landscape. 

TLDR 📃

• Governments worldwide actively pursue Bitcoin, signalling a shift from regulation to adoption and adaptation.
• El Salvador's bonds have soared by 60% this year due to its Bitcoin exposure, attracting global attention.
• The U.S. is preparing for a crypto future with new surveillance laws set to take effect.
• A U.S. Presidential candidate promises to back the US dollar with Bitcoin, bringing cryptocurrency into the political spotlight.

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. Any capital-related decisions you make are your full responsibility.

Investors flock to El Salvador bonds to gain exposure to BTC🇸🇻

El Salvador’s bonds have soared to defy traditional expectations of bond performance. 

Up 60% this year alone, seeing such massive returns in the bond market is surprising. It didn’t even take that much BTC to trigger the upswing in El Salvador’s bonds (they only have 2,381 BTC).

 It’s practically a no-brainer, though; the bonds provide indirect exposure to BTC while delivering a sweet yield. It’s a bond investor’s dream. 

The potentially high demand is likely to drive national attention worldwide, especially with many countries still struggling economically after Covid19.

BTC has proved how much confidence it can inspire, and nations will want a piece.

Is Bitcoin ready for Big Brother? 👁️‍🗨️

The U.S. appears to be sharpening its surveillance machine as it prepares for increased participation in Bitcoin and crypto at large.

Starting in January 2024, individuals will have to disclose massive amounts of personal information about themselves and the people they receive BTC from. If someone sends you BTC worth over $10k, you must report their data to the government or be held liable by the IRS.

There was a legal fight to stop these rules from going into effect, but that case was sadly dismissed. This means the US will have a bird’s eye view over Bitcoin flows in a way that other nations simply can’t match, yet. This level of surveillance is almost similar to the SWIFT network, which the US uses to track and control large movements of money. 

While it is apparent that this level of financial surveillance helps the U.S. spot and tackle financial crimes, there’s also the possibility that it gives the U.S. front-row seats to watching how Bitcoin becomes increasingly integrated into the global economy.

Is this enough of an advantage for the US to go all in on BTC too? Time will tell.

U.S. presidential candidate wants BTC on the national balance sheet💰

RFK Jr., a U.S. Presidential candidate who’s been gaining momentum, is making Bitcoin a front-burning electoral issue in the U.S. Running what Bitcoiners will call a Bitcoin-first agenda, he’s promised to back the US dollar with Bitcoin if elected! 

While this may seem far-fetched, the odds are higher than you think. In recent polls among Democrats, RFK Jr. has polled ahead of Joe Biden!

We don’t know if RFK Jr. will win, but we know he’ll do a lot for the crypto community by bringing Bitcoin into Presidential debates. 

What does this mean for you? 🤔

Having Bitcoin on a country’s balance sheet is not unthinkable. After all, Canada has billions of dollars worth of maple syrup, all loaded up in barrels like oil- seriously. 

What’s better than maple syrup, though, is BTC, the only fixed-supply system in the world.

The fact that having Bitcoin on El Salvador’s balance is driving up its bonds and that a U.S. presidential candidate is pro-Bitcoin are promising developments. They may subtly cause other governments to start realising the unique value Bitcoin has as a reserve asset. 

This acknowledgement could, in turn, drive demand for BTC higher. 

All this means long-term demand for BTC is brewing and is already strong enough to support entire nations.

Price analysis 📊

Bitcoin's dominance

More capital will sail away from BTC...

When it comes to Bitcoin's dominance, we're keeping it simple - its dominance falling means happy hour for altcoins. Unfortunately, there's an exception to this rule.

When the price of Bitcoin falls simultaneously with its dominance, alts bleed - and fast. To give you a clear example, SOL, DYDX and even LDO are down more than 5% today, as a result of a slight drop in Bitcoin's dominance, as well as in its price.

This will be the norm for a while, and we're expecting its dominance to bottom out between 48% and 49%. That leaves us with Bitcoin's price to cover...

Bitcoin

The last few weeks have been full of uncertainty and overall boredom. However, that's changing as Bitcoin is on track for support at $28,750.

Think of this level as the ultimate threshold between us going to the high $30,000s or the mid $20,000 again. If $28,750 holds, more upside to $32,000 and above is expected.

However, losing $28,750 will invalidate any potential upside and bring us into new lows again.

Cryptonary’s take 🧠

The first Bitcoin buyers were people!

Then came the institutions!

And now,  governments are preparing to place their bets. 

Now, there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins, some of which are lost. Friction over scarce resources like this has led to wars in the past.

However, because Bitcoin cannot be so easily taken, the fight for Bitcoin will be monetary, not military.

Governments fighting over Bitcoin might cause some problems – but as Bitcoin investors, that will be a good problem to have.

As always, thanks for reading! 🙏

Cryptonary, out!