So, what’s shaking up the XRP market this week? 

Well, the Silvergate crash caused a general market decline, Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong openly criticises the SEC’s (Security and Exchange Commission) position against XRP, whales move up to 500M in XRP despite price drop, a new court ruling excludes a key SEC witness from testifying, and CBDC projects may hold the key to accelerating XRP adoption. 

Considering the sensitivity of digital markets to financial news, here's a brief look at how XRP, one of the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation, fared between March 6 and March 16. 

TLDR

• Ripple is a blockchain-based digital payment network. Its $XRP token is currently priced at $0.36.
• The current SEC lawsuit against Ripple is predicted to end by summer 2023, with broad implications for the entire cryptocurrency market.
• Amid regulatory scrutiny and the Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) crashes, the market remains indecisive on the value of $XRP. The bears are in control.
• Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse delivered chilling news - the project had cash tied up with SVB. However, he promised investors there would be no halt in daily activities.

Disclaimer: Not financial nor investment advice. Any capital-related decisions you make are your responsibility and yours only.

To moon, or not to moon, that is the question…

After three long years, there are finally signs of an end to the long winding litigation between Ripple Labs and the SEC. 

So will Ripple beat the case? Will $XRP ever return to its former glory? 

Frankly, it's hard to say just how the situation will end. As for the digital asset, only by diving into $XRP’s market data can we provide accurate insight into what to expect in the near future. 

So let’s get started.

The Bitcoin factor 

The first major banking crash (Silvergate) dealt a severe blow to the trading volume of $BTC, whose price had been climbing. Following the crash, traders liquidated multiple positions to mitigate losses. The ripple effect was felt across the entire market.

$BTC is currently trading at $24K and is primed to go higher if the asset maintains current volumes. Traders swarmed in to take advantage of the low price and volatility after the SVB crisis, which explains the price surge high as 26K at the start of the week. Currently, at 24K and ranging, this is a crucial point which could see price clear 28K if volume is sustained to pre-SVB levels (it’s currently 45% lower than its level in late February). 

Ripple news

If you didn't know this already, in 2020 the SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple, alleging its $XRP cryptocurrency was an unregistered security with which Ripple and its executives had engaged in unauthorised sales.

Despite this lawsuit and the sheer magnitude of crypto-related disasters in 2022, $XRP has managed to remain relevant all the way into 2023. The token commands $1B in daily trading volume, surpassing that of Binance's $BNB. 

Currently, Ripple Labs is awaiting summary judgment to be delivered in mid-2023. However, the wait hasn’t stopped the developer making important advancements to stay ahead in the wildly competitive crypto space.

Let’s take a look at some of these…

Ripple’s on-demand liquidity facilitates $6T in daily transactions and services more than 40 jurisdictions outside the US. 

Ripple Labs has multiple collaborations with over 100 financial institutions  to facilitate low-cost transactions across borders, with partners such as Santander, the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Saudi Arabian bank SABB, to name a few. 

The quarterly XRP report published in January indicates a rise in on-chain activity since the ledger’s XLS-20 upgrade in 2022 (which allowed for NFT functionality on the Ripple network). This opened the doors for notable community projects like Pixel Ape Rowboat Club (PARC), xDude, and XRP Junkies to test the limits of what's possible on the Ripple ledger. 

XRP native wallet ‘Xumm’ entered a partnership with ‘Friipay’ to provide blockchain-based retail payments through a Point of Sale/Service product (a tool which helps businesses process transactions, store customer data, etc,) that onboards traditional businesses into the world of digital assets. 

With so many collaborations including Novatti, Shopify, Modulr, Tranglo and Dubai-based Joyalukka Exchange, the only thing left to really push the token’s value upward is a positive ruling in the SEC lawsuit. 

Although the SVB collapse had an enormous effect on the entire market, Ripple was one of the companies that showed commitment to their investors. CEO Brad Garlinghouse shared on Twitter that they had some exposure to the state bank. In a brief interaction he also reassured his followers that Ripple would not be affected by the situation considering the company’s reserves are held by a “broader network of bank partners”. The announcement was met with assured enthusiasm from followers as they expressed their faith in Brad, and the company’s risk management policy. 

Market analysis 

$XRP has been volatile in price over the past few years, rising and falling in response to a variety of factors. 

For instance, in reaction to a speculation on the SEC lawsuit, $XRP broke into a bull trot to test $0.52 in October 2022. The hype eventually evaporated and saw the token return to its recent level of $0.37.

It recently regained momentum as news of an increasing number of Ripple partnerships made the rounds. In January, Ripple’s tie-up with Montenegro to develop a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) for the Southeastern European country saw $XRP’s value very briefly test the $0.41 resistance line on the daily timeframes.

Although the token’s price dropped under previous levels, there has been a gradual increase in daily transactions to 1.5 million. This is an indication that traders are taking advantage of the volatility surrounding the regulatory status of $XRP. Yes, the outcome of the case remains uncertain. However, recent court developments like the judge rejecting the SEC’s expert witness, have given the Ripple Labs team continued reason for hope. Armed with this, they are continuing to pursue blockchain innovation and global adoption.   

Despite maintaining its position as the sixth most popular cryptocurrency, $XRP has continued to fall on the daily and weekly charts. However, it recently displayed a possible uptrend in the making as its Relative Strength Index (a technical indicator displaying buy strength or weakness within a trading period) dropped to 40, indicating a potential buy opportunity. 

Combined with the recent court ruling, traders could take advantage of the volatility to reclaim previous levels of $0.38. This upward move is highly dependent on the price action of $BTC on the weekly charts, and if the asset can break past the current range to convert 25K. 

HODL or trade XRP?

Current market indicators describe $XRP as a net negative long term investment. This is validated by its poor performance on the charts since the 2018 bear market and the snail’s-pace  lawsuit. Trading, however, presents the best opportunity to make profits or mitigate losses in response to the token’s volatility. 

A proven strategy for trading $XRP includes using trading tools like Bollinger Bands, 50D MA, TD Sequential or Ichimoku to identify volatile conditions and extract opportunity from the market. 

Cryptonary’s Take 

The $XRP token is positioned to disrupt traditional cross-border payments and compete with dominant fiat currencies. $XRP offers faster and more cost-effective cross-border payments, with transactions settled in a matter of seconds compared to the several days required by traditional payment methods. Ripple's blockchain technology facilitates direct peer-to-peer transactions, eliminating the need for intermediaries and reducing costs.

The Ripple team is also clearly willing to go above and beyond to facilitate global blockchain adoption for businesses and users with minimal friction. Products like RippleNet, ODL and Xumm wallet provide real-world utility and easy access to the powerful opportunities of the blockchain. 

While the token’s value and trading volume increased by 1.6% and 50%, respectively, in the last 24 hours, the charts haven’t shown any real indications of long-term improvement. And that situation might not change until summer this year. 

Expect the price to remain volatile, with the most obvious opportunities being short-term leveraged trades as $XRP nears the court’s final decision and reclaims previous levels.