New Portfolio Participant – Updates

The previous two times we have covered this subject, the reports always end being a lengthy read. To keep things brief, we’ll be focusing on the game theory aspect that is present at the moment. In simpler terms – what do I do now ?

To do that we will need to look at the developments through the day, and some simple stats to inform our decision. Let’s look at three hypothetical scenarios:

1 – if you have not done anything so far

2 – if you followed the most recent journal

3 – if you followed AlphaDao Proposal #10

 

We highly suggest revisiting the reports linked above. They are lengthy but that is for a reason – there is a lot to explain and even more for someone to understand.

Disclaimer: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. Only you are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make and only you are accountable for the results.

Initially let’s look at some stats to get an idea of how things went. We projected an expected raise of around 120 million USDC, forecasted that the raise would surpass 32million USDC at a minimum and that most of the deposit activity would occur in the last hour. 52 million USDC was raised for 30 million SHDW tokens, and thus everyone who participated in the IDO received their SHDW tokens at a price of 1.73USDC per token. The raise did not meet our expectations – benefiting the IDO participants who got a lower price per token.

The SHDW token is easily available on two markets, Orca dot so and also dex dot aldrin dot com. The second of those is also the best source for the current price. As you can see from below, since being listed the token has not dumped (like previous IDOs). The fact that there would not be a post IDO ‘dump’ and the reasoning behind it was explained here, and the prediction came to pass.

As outlined in the report the only tokens which are currently available are the IDO tokens – with minimal emissions from the SSC NFTs being staked ( 27 SHDW tokens a day per staked NFT). The first emissions will occur tomorrow. Thus IDO participants are effectively the ones who determine the price and control the near entirety of the circulating supply. The 13,247 unique holders and the well distributed tokens have led to the excellent performance since listing – there is a mini supply side crisis. Note how the Top 100 wallets only own 38% of the supply. So on average, the 100 biggest whales each have 0.38% of the supply. This benefits the smaller players, whose conviction was rewarded. To also clarify, double – dipping or liquidity providing comes with risks, that become excpetionally high when you’re doing it with tokens that have high upside. For this reason it does not make sense to look Double Dipping currently. Now before we dive into some hypothetical decisions lets run some numbers.

The price of an SSC is around 110 SOL. If you remember 110SOL = 18400USDC = 1 SSC = 13,000SHDW unlocking daily over a year. So the tokens attached to the NFTs are being valued at 18,400USDC/13,000SHDW = 1.41 USDC per SHDW. You are getting a discount on the available tokens as the ones attached to the NFT unlock daily. The market has stabilised enough to allow us to look at some hypotheticals.

Disclaimer: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. Only you are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make and only you are accountable for the results. The below scenarios are hypothetical and are a thought expercise for how to analyse developments.

Scenario 1 – Let’s start from the viewpoint of someone who has just heard about SHDW, and has read the previous articles. Here it really comes down to your patience and what you value. The NFT comes with a cheaper price per token, but they unlock daily and you need a large enough amount of capital to participate using this option. For someone who has a long term vision and can stake the NFT for the full year, it is the best option. Alternatively purchasing on a DEX is the only other way to gain exposure, and you can deploy as much or as little capital as you wish. You can also completely exit your position at any time instantly.

Scenario 2 – participated in the IDO. The price per token was 1.73, with SHDW currently trading at around 2.5USDC. For the risk averse individual this offers a chance to recoup your initial investment and also keep some SHDW to retain exposure to the asset. It is also possible to set certain targets at which a percentage of profit will be taken. Selling small amounts at pre defined targets is a good way to bank profit whilst not missing out on the upside. Once single sided staking is enabled it should be a priority to stake your SHDW – at that point you can also look to also sell your staking rewards if inclined. Indeed with with our portfolio allocation we will be looking to take some profit at predefined points:

20% of the allocation at 3.4USD

10% of the allocation at 6.8USD

10% of the allocation at 10USD

10% of the allocation at 20 USD

The tokens should be staked the moment staking becomes available – it will also be duly covered by a journal.

Scenario 3 – purchased a SSC. The most important thing is making sure you understand how to stake your NFT in order to claim your tokens. To do so go to the following link and connect your wallet. https :// ssc-staking dot genesysgo dot com/ . Once you connect your wallet using the button in the top right you’ll see the interface update and show all the SSCs in the wallet you connected.

To stake, simply click the stake button under the NFT you want to stake and approve the transaction. The website should update and be similar to that shown below:

You should be staking your NFT regardless in order to unlock tokens. Remember you have to keep the NFT staked for the full year to unlock the 3,000 bonus tokens. There is no situation where it makes sense to unstake, as you receive 27 unlocked SHDW tokens daily – all you have to do is claim them using the button on the website. You can do this whenever you want. If you are encountering an error when trying to stake your NFT, go to Raydium and connect your wallet. You will see a pop up appear just like the image below:

After having clicked the migration tool link as shown by the green box, you’ll be directed to the below tool. Click the Migrate Token Accounts button and approve the transaction. Once the transaction goes you can now go back to the staking website. Reload it, connect you wallet and follow the staking process.

There are a couple of strategies an NFT holder can consider. Firstly, if the token hits a value that let’s you recover your initial investment by selling your available tokens. A quick example:

Purchased SSC for 15,000 USDC. After 2 months you will have around 1,600 unlocked tokens. Let us assume the price is 10USDC per token. At this point you would unstake, sell the 1,600 tokens for 16,000 USDC, making sure you recover your initial investment, and then restake to continue unlocking tokens. You can adjust the numbers for any scenario.

The second option is if you want take some profits and have some cash flow throughout the year. This can be done by claiming and selling a portion of tokens every day/week/month, adjusting the period to your choice. For tokens in their early stages which also carry high potential upside a window of every two weeks or more for this selling would be optimal. This allows the selling of the tokens to be spaces out – capturing any upside movements. This of course also applies to the downside, but as an SSC purchaser and holder you understand that the potential upside far outweighs the downside.

The approach taken towards any decision should be careful and well thought out. Everyone’s situation is unique and so is their protfolio, hence there is no ‘best’ strategy, especially with the multiple options available in the above scenarios. A decision should not be made lightly but once made it should be done with conviction. Makes sure to add in an invalidation for your decision.

For all the above scenarios invalidation comes down to only one aspect – execution. To determine this we will have to follow along with the development updates as they occur, which will of course be covered. The market, and also the price reflect these developments. If the price dips and stays below the IDO price any time in the next 2-3 months it is cause for concern. Up till that point no tangible development is to be expected, and hence any market movements are of no concern.

Conclusion

This article is still not complete. The space moves quickly and we expect things to have changed in the next 24hours. We will revisit the topic and developments in a video format tomorrow as well. Stay tuned for updates! It is important however that once you make a decision, you stick to it. Conviction is the greatest asset one can have.

Disclaimer: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. Only you are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make and only you are accountable for the results.

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Bill Papas

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