The recent surge in Bitcoin and rumblings about a new bull market were preceded by speculation on just how far BTC could go.
Xapo’s CEO and entrepreneur Wences Casares recently claimed that, in seven to ten years, Bitcoin could reach $1,000,000.
Casares struck up an interest in BTC as a result of the unpredictability of the financial markets in his native Argentina. He is also a member of PayPal’s board of directors.
His company Xapo is based in Hong Kong and offers a Bitcoin wallet with a cold storage vault, as well as a Bitcoin-based debit card.
However, he starts by calling Bitcoin “a fascinating experiment” – and admits that it “still has a chance of failing and becoming worthless”, which is not what we want to hear. He estimates that BTC has a 20% chance of failure, moreover.
So, onto the good news – after ten years of working well “without interruption”, BTC now has more than 60 million holders and acquires more than one million new holders every month. The crypto also moves more than $1 billion per day worldwide – and this, surmises Casares, is why “it has a good chance of succeeding”.
“In my (subjective) opinion,” he continues, “Those chances of succeeding are at least 50%. If Bitcoin does succeed, 1 Bitcoin may be worth more than $1 million in 7 to 10 years. That is 250 times what it is worth today (at the time of writing the price of Bitcoin is ~ $4,000).
“I suggest that a $10 million portfolio should invest at most $100,000 in Bitcoin (up to 1% but not more as the risk of losing this investment is high). If Bitcoin fails, this portfolio will lose at most $100,000 or 1% of its value over 3 to 5 years, which most portfolios can bear. But if Bitcoin succeeds, in 7 to 10 years, those $100,000 may be worth more than $25 million, more than twice the value of the entire initial portfolio.”
Well, it would be easy to crack open the champagne at this point, but how likely is it that Bitcoin will turn out to be the goose that lays the golden egg and makes us all BTC millionaires?
BTC million-dollar predictions
Crypto is a high-risk stake after all, despite the fact that since it was launched in 2008, it has turned a profit for early adopters and remains the most popular crypto out there.
In August 2017, on the cusp of the bull-run of Bitcoin in late 2017, The World Crypto Network [#Bitcoin] @WorldCryptoNet tweeted:
— The World Crypto Network [#Bitcoin] (@WorldCryptoNet) 24 August 2017
But from early 2017 onwards, analysts were discussing whether Bitcoin could top $1m – and Fox Business even suggested Bitcoin might reach $1 billion. Fox News commentator Tammy Bruce had a father who was “an enforcer for the Mob”, so she is happy that Bitcoin “goes beyond the Establishment”. Tammy prefers cash and gold, though, because online transactions still put users at risk of centralised control – and without the energy to power the internet, you are also pretty well stuffed. Her opponent Naomi Brockwell cites the decentralisation that Bitcoin represents as the reason why “Bitcoin’s going to the moon” – plus the technology can outwit repressive foreign regimes by allowing citizens of countries like Venezuela to buy goods online and have them shipped to Venezuela from the US or wherever.
How much would BTC have to surge?
CCN.com points out that, at BTC’s then value of $2,598, it would have to surge by 38,491,100% to top $1bn.
Today, already BTC is double that value at above $5,000 in just 20 months, but for BTC to top $1m in seven to ten years, it still has some mighty odds to beat. However, never say never in the world of finance.
CNN.com does the math on $1bn:
“For Bitcoin to reach $1 billion, it would need to experience a 38,491,100% increase from its current $2,598 mark. This would give Bitcoin a very respectable $16 quintillion market cap, given the current supply.
“Assuming every altcoin retained its current trade value with Bitcoin, even 100th-ranked TokenCard would achieve a market cap of nearly $9 trillion.
“This would be unlikely in a scenario in which Bitcoin achieved this level of financial dominance, but let’s face it, a $1 billion Bitcoin price is unlikely, too.”
How about a more modest $1m value for Bitcoin?
Speaking to CNBC, former hedge fund manager James Altucher suggested in January 2018 that Bitcoin would hit $1m in three years.
“I’ll say $1 million by 2020, as well, easily. There’s 15 million millionaires around the world. All their financial advisors are going to say, ‘Hey, buy a Bitcoin. You need some exposure.’ There’s only going to be 21 million Bitcoins minted ever in history. That’s also going to drive demand.”
The Bitcoin Rally To $1 Million Bitcoin’s diehards have long seen $1 million as the holy grail for the BTC price. John McAfee, for instance, proudly claimed that if BTC… https://t.co/Nyn5CDODCZ
— The Crypto Report (@thecryptorep) 15 April 2019
More recently, John McAFee reaffirmed his 2017 bet that BTC would hit $1m by 2020.
if not, I will eat my dick on national television.
— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) July 17, 2017
Swedish information technology entrepreneur Rick Falkvinge is also of the opinion that bitcoin can capture 1% to 10% of the global investor market.
“This leads us to a target market cap of 600 billion to 6 trillion USD, to be fulfilled by about 6 million Bitcoin, which makes for easy calculations. That means that each Bitcoin would be worth $100,000 at the low market cap and $1,000,000 at the high market cap,” he says.
The last word should go to Wences Casares, perhaps – who, like James P. O’Shaughnessy – author of What Works on Wall Street – appears to hold faith in the long-term investment strategy, plus a dose of pragmatism:
“The Internet doesn’t have a currency and it desperately needs one. The biggest mistake would be to buy more Bitcoin than you can afford to lose. The biggest mistake is not to own any Bitcoin. Put 1% of your net worth in Bitcoin and forget about it for 10 years.”
If he is right and BTC will hit $1m within seven to ten years, we could all be looking at a golden future, but without the need for gold. Invest well and wisely.
Bitcoin rocket image licensed via Shutterstock