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Bitcoin indicators reach five-month high

Bitcoin (BTC) has given the crypto space a new reason to celebrate after surpassing more than 400 million transactions since 2009.

Bitcoin remains the most popular and widely used cryptocurrency, despite claims that eventually Ripple XRP will overtake it due to its “bank-friendliness”.

The new record in Bitcoin’s history involves block 570,761.

Social media platform Reddit saw its users celebrate the news and Reddit user bitusher uploaded a link to the exact numbers of maximum transactions possible per block. The block involved in the new record had a total of 400,001,789 transactions.

However, despite Bitcoin also reaching its ninth highest level of daily user transactions on 2 April – a total of 401,000 – established payment systems like Visa are still out in front when it comes to user transactions.

The price of Bitcoin has also surged in the last two weeks, spiralling up from around $4,300 to above $5,000 and predicted to rise as high as $6,000.

Commentators have attributed Bitcoin’s recent surge to the fact it had already bottomed out and was entering a bull market before the next mining reward was halved in August 2020, suggesting that – as the next Bitcoin halving was also due in May 2020 – investors were taking note of the pattern of halving, as they have done in the past.

Is this the new BTC bull run?

Although there is speculation that Bitcoin is due for a bull run, the volatility of BTC is causing some speculation online. On Thursday (11/04/19) CNN reported that, after the $5,450 high BTC achieved out of the blue on Wednesday, the price suddenly dropped by 4% just 12 hours later. On 7 April, the price had dropped by 7% and over the last few weeks, it has slipped and surged by turns.

Online, the crypto community is fully engaged in working out what BTC is going to do next, including how the whales are buying.

There is news that reveals in China the whales are buying BTC over-the-counter (OTC) to avoid detection, while on Twitter cryptoZen tweets how whales everywhere are buying Bitcoin without it affecting the price.

The Chinese government outlawed crypto and trading in September 2017, so OTC sales are one way of getting your hands on crypto in China.

Crypto news source CNledger reports that investors in China continue to fuel demand for cryptocurrency in the country – and despite the government ban on crypto – via the routes of stablecoins, virtual private networks (VPN) and OTC.

Btcnn reports that crypto analyst “light” believes that the offshore functionality of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and the intrinsic store of value characteristic of Bitcoin, “is likely appealing to investors”.

“We are witnessing a resurgence in Chinese demand for cryptocurrencies,” says light.

“This trend in the making comes after more than a year of relative quiet, a reminder of the time when Chinese volumes were king. For a variety of reasons not least of which are the volatility and offshore functionality, cryptocurrencies had taken hold of the Chinese investing public’s imagination. In late 2016, more than 90% of bitcoin volumes were paired against the Yuan.”

Bitcoin dump warning

Not all crypto observers are confident that Bitcoin’s latest surge will drive a bull run, however.

On Twitter, David Weng of Canada predicted on Wednesday 10 April that “10th April Candle closed, and it was a fakey. It’s important today. If it dump next candle, we have it 4800$, or not.” He went on to add that Ethereum was giving the “dump signal”.

For those new to crypto, a candlestick is a term describing a tool used to show the price of a specific cryptocurrency – highest, lowest, opening and closing – during a specified time period.

On 11 April, Weng warned, “If you want to go long again, you will go long with a lower price.”

Sticking to your investment strategy

We have talked before on about JP O’Shaughnessy’s view that sticking to an investment strategy is perhaps the best way to achieve results.

Author of What Works on Wall Street, O’Shaughnessy is a great believer in accumulating as much data as possible to back up your your strategy – and not panicking. He also believes that three years is the worst time period possible for making any change to an investment strategy, because of Reversion to Mean – after three years of a period of low performance, there may follow a period of high performance and vice versa.

In the case of Bitcoin, since its launch in 2008, the three-year period saw in 2011 the crypto bubble peaking before bursting and bottoming out in November 2011.

By 2014, crypto was experiencing a bear run which had been preceded by a brief bull run – but the cryptocurrency market had by then expanded with new investment products such as futures, options, indexes and hedge funds.

By 2017, the crypto market had appreciated more than 1,200% – however, 2018 was more bearish, but nothing like 2014.

It may be that BTC is ready for a bull run after having already bottomed out, as some believe – but according to the principle of Reversion to Mean, the crypto markets may have to wait a little longer.

On the other hand, O’Shaughnessy is also opposed to listening to chatter and following the herd, rather than your own investment strategy.

During 12 April, Bitcoin stood at around $5,067.87 USD, having slipped away from the anticipated $6,000 surge.

We are still watching this crypto space, but if you need to check out what cryptos have been doing in a handy chart, does the math for you and shows the April 2018 peak, followed by a second surge in November. There is still time for Bitcoin to surge again to match last year’s twin peaks, but whether the recent surge turns out to be the Bitcoin bull run we are waiting for remains to be seen.

Bitcoin image licensed via Shutterstock

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